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Bulls Academy vs Mounties Wanderers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Bulls Academy
Bulls Academy
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Mounties Wanderers
Mounties Wanderers
L. Sterjovski 90+4'
M. Krslovic 90'
J. Cardozo 15'
J. McGing 90+3', 5'
M. Gibbs 17'
8/30/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 30Sydney United Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Bulls Academy56%
×Draw21%
Mounties Wanderers23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulls Academy
2.16
Mounties Wanderers
1.34

Bulls Academy creates 61% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 50 away

creates per match

Bulls Academy
2.23
Mounties Wanderers
1.24

allows per match

Bulls Academy
1.45
Mounties Wanderers
2.08

finishing

Bulls Academy+0.00on par
Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulls Academy ↓

Mounties Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bulls Academy or draw
77%
Bulls Academy or Mounties Wanderers
79%
Draw or Mounties Wanderers
44%

Winning margin

Bulls Academy wins by 2+
34%
Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bulls Academy 1+ goals
88%
Bulls Academy 2+ goals
63%
Bulls Academy 3+ goals
36%
Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals
74%
Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals
39%
Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bulls Academy (draw refunded)
70%
Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulls Academy at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

Mounties Wanderers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.08 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulls Academy attack 2.23 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.16

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.24 + Bulls Academy defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bulls Academy scores more
56%
level
21%
Mounties Wanderers scores more
23%

Bulls Academy at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bulls Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
J. McGing
15'
J. Cardozo
17'
M. Gibbs
90'
M. Krslovic
90+3'
J. McGing
90+4'
L. Sterjovski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Bulls Academy 3–3 Mounties Wanderers

Bulls Academy and Mounties Wanderers drew 3-3 in New South Wales NPL 2 on August 30, 2025.

Goals: J. McGing (5', 90+3'), J. Cardozo (15'), M. Gibbs (17'), M. Krslovic (90'), L. Sterjovski (90+4').

The match was played at Sydney United Sports Center in Sydney.