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Mounties Wanderers vs Bankstown City Lions — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Mounties Wanderers
Mounties Wanderers
FT
0 – 1
Bankstown City Lions
Bankstown City Lions
4/15/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 11Cook Park Mount Pritchard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Mounties Wanderers28%
×Draw23%
Bankstown City Lions50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mounties Wanderers
1.34
Bankstown City Lions
1.86

Bankstown City Lions creates 39% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 57 away

creates per match

Mounties Wanderers
1.15
Bankstown City Lions
1.49

allows per match

Mounties Wanderers
2.23
Bankstown City Lions
1.54

finishing

Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par
Bankstown City Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mounties Wanderers ↓

Bankstown City Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mounties Wanderers or draw
50%
Mounties Wanderers or Bankstown City Lions
77%
Draw or Bankstown City Lions
72%

Winning margin

Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+
12%
Bankstown City Lions wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals
74%
Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals
39%
Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals
15%
Bankstown City Lions 1+ goals
84%
Bankstown City Lions 2+ goals
55%
Bankstown City Lions 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)
36%
Bankstown City Lions (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mounties Wanderers at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.23 · 48 matches

Bankstown City Lions away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.54 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.15 + Bankstown City Lions defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Bankstown City Lions attack 1.49 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mounties Wanderers scores more
28%
level
23%
Bankstown City Lions scores more
50%

Bankstown City Lions at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bankstown City Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Mounties Wanderers 0–1 Bankstown City Lions

Bankstown City Lions beat Mounties Wanderers 1-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Cook Park Mount Pritchard in Sydney.