Bankstown City Lions 2–1 Mounties Wanderers

Bankstown City Lions

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mounties Wanderers

J. Masson 77', 75'

E. Kishimoto 33'

4/12/2025

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 10Jensen Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Bankstown City Lions51%

×Draw23%

Mounties Wanderers26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bankstown City LionsExpected goals in this matchMounties Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.25

Bankstown City Lions

1.84

Mounties Wanderers

1.25

Bankstown City Lions creates 47% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 50 away

1.60

creates per match

1.24

1.25

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Bankstown City Lions

1.60

Mounties Wanderers

1.24

allows per match

Bankstown City Lions

1.25

Mounties Wanderers

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bankstown City Lions+0.00on par

Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bankstown City Lions ↓

Mounties Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bankstown City Lions or draw

74%

Bankstown City Lions or Mounties Wanderers

77%

Draw or Mounties Wanderers

49%

Winning margin

Bankstown City Lions wins by 2+

29%

Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bankstown City Lions 1+ goals

84%

Bankstown City Lions 2+ goals

55%

Bankstown City Lions 3+ goals

28%

Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals

71%

Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals

36%

Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bankstown City Lions (draw refunded)

66%

Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bankstown City Lions at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Mounties Wanderers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.08 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bankstown City Lions attack 1.60 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.84

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.24 + Bankstown City Lions defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bankstown City Lions scores more

51%

level

23%

Mounties Wanderers scores more

26%

Bankstown City Lions at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bankstown City Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

E. Kishimoto

75'

J. Masson

77'

J. Masson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff