Mouna 0–1 ASEC Mimosas: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Mouna

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ASEC Mimosas

3/2/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 21Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mouna23%

×Draw28%

ASEC Mimosas48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MounaExpected goals in this matchASEC Mimosas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.34

Mouna

0.84

ASEC Mimosas

1.34

ASEC Mimosas creates 60% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 89 away

1.02

creates per match

1.42

1.27

allows per match

0.66

creates per match

Mouna

1.02

ASEC Mimosas

1.42

allows per match

Mouna

1.27

ASEC Mimosas

0.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mouna+0.00on par

ASEC Mimosas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouna ↓

ASEC Mimosas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–115%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mouna or draw

52%

Mouna or ASEC Mimosas

72%

Draw or ASEC Mimosas

77%

Winning margin

Mouna wins by 2+

8%

ASEC Mimosas wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Mouna 1+ goals

57%

Mouna 2+ goals

21%

Mouna 3+ goals

5%

ASEC Mimosas 1+ goals

74%

ASEC Mimosas 2+ goals

39%

ASEC Mimosas 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Mouna (draw refunded)

33%

ASEC Mimosas (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouna at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

ASEC Mimosas away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.66 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouna attack 1.02 + ASEC Mimosas defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.84

ASEC Mimosas attack 1.42 + Mouna defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mouna scores more

23%

level

28%

ASEC Mimosas scores more

48%

ASEC Mimosas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ASEC Mimosas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff