ASEC Mimosas 1–1 Mouna: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

ASEC Mimosas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Mouna

10/27/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 6Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

ASEC Mimosas45%

×Draw28%

Mouna27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASEC MimosasExpected goals in this matchMouna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.94

ASEC Mimosas

1.30

Mouna

0.94

ASEC Mimosas creates 38% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 45 away

1.44

creates per match

1.27

0.61

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

ASEC Mimosas

1.44

Mouna

1.27

allows per match

ASEC Mimosas

0.61

Mouna

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASEC Mimosas+0.00on par

Mouna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASEC Mimosas ↓

Mouna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

ASEC Mimosas or draw

73%

ASEC Mimosas or Mouna

72%

Draw or Mouna

55%

Winning margin

ASEC Mimosas wins by 2+

21%

Mouna wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

ASEC Mimosas 1+ goals

73%

ASEC Mimosas 2+ goals

37%

ASEC Mimosas 3+ goals

14%

Mouna 1+ goals

61%

Mouna 2+ goals

24%

Mouna 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

ASEC Mimosas (draw refunded)

62%

Mouna (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASEC Mimosas at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.61 · 94 matches

Mouna away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASEC Mimosas attack 1.44 + Mouna defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

Mouna attack 1.27 + ASEC Mimosas defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ASEC Mimosas scores more

45%

level

28%

Mouna scores more

27%

ASEC Mimosas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ASEC Mimosas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff