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Mouloudia Oujda vs Maghreb Fès — Botola Pro 2025

Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Maghreb Fès
Maghreb Fès
10/7/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 6Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda36%
×Draw29%
Maghreb Fès35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mouloudia Oujda
1.09
Maghreb Fès
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 90 away

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.17
Maghreb Fès
0.99

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.17
Maghreb Fès
1.01

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par
Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

Maghreb Fès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw
65%
Mouloudia Oujda or Maghreb Fès
71%
Draw or Maghreb Fès
64%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
14%
Maghreb Fès wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
66%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
30%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
10%
Maghreb Fès 1+ goals
66%
Maghreb Fès 2+ goals
29%
Maghreb Fès 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
50%
Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 90 matches

Maghreb Fès away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.17 + Maghreb Fès defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Maghreb Fès attack 0.99 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more
36%
level
29%
Maghreb Fès scores more
35%

Mouloudia Oujda at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mouloudia Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mouloudia Oujda vs Maghreb Fès

Maghreb Fès beat Mouloudia Oujda 3-1 in Botola Pro on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda in Oujda.