Maghreb Fès 2–1 Mouloudia Oujda: Result & Stats

Maghreb Fès

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Mouloudia Oujda

11/5/2022

Botola Pro · Round 8Complexe Sportif de Fès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Maghreb Fès44%

×Draw29%

Mouloudia Oujda27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maghreb FèsExpected goals in this matchMouloudia Oujda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.88

Maghreb Fès

1.22

Mouloudia Oujda

0.88

Maghreb Fès creates 39% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 90 away

1.16

creates per match

0.93

0.82

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Maghreb Fès

1.16

Mouloudia Oujda

0.93

allows per match

Maghreb Fès

0.82

Mouloudia Oujda

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maghreb Fès ↓

Mouloudia Oujda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Maghreb Fès or draw

73%

Maghreb Fès or Mouloudia Oujda

71%

Draw or Mouloudia Oujda

56%

Winning margin

Maghreb Fès wins by 2+

19%

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Maghreb Fès 1+ goals

70%

Maghreb Fès 2+ goals

34%

Maghreb Fès 3+ goals

12%

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals

59%

Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals

22%

Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)

62%

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maghreb Fès at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.82 · 90 matches

Mouloudia Oujda away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.28 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maghreb Fès attack 1.16 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Mouloudia Oujda attack 0.93 + Maghreb Fès defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Maghreb Fès scores more

44%

level

29%

Mouloudia Oujda scores more

27%

Maghreb Fès at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Maghreb Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff