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Mouloudia Oujda vs Kawkab Marrakech — Botola Pro 2025

Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
FT
2 – 1
Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
2/16/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 18Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda (Oujda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda43%
×Draw29%
Kawkab Marrakech29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mouloudia Oujda
1.25
Kawkab Marrakech
0.97

Mouloudia Oujda creates 29% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 33 away

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.16
Kawkab Marrakech
0.79

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.16
Kawkab Marrakech
1.33

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par
Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw
71%
Mouloudia Oujda or Kawkab Marrakech
71%
Draw or Kawkab Marrakech
57%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
19%
Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
71%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
36%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
13%
Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
62%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
25%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
60%
Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 88 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.16 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.79 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more
43%
level
29%
Kawkab Marrakech scores more
29%

Mouloudia Oujda at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mouloudia Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
Tawfieq Ijrouten
64'
Soufiane Karkache
73'
Abdelghafour Mihri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Mouloudia Oujda 2–1 Kawkab Marrakech

Mouloudia Oujda beat Kawkab Marrakech 2-1 in Botola Pro on February 16, 2019.

Goals: Tawfieq Ijrouten (40'), Soufiane Karkache (64'), Abdelghafour Mihri (73').

The match was played at Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda (Oujda).