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Kawkab Marrakech vs Mouloudia Oujda — Botola 2 2025

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
M. Bosnan 86'
A. Al-Saghiri 28'
S. Essallami 6'
I. Khannouss 14'
1/12/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 14Stade Municipal Ben Guerir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech48%
×Draw27%
Mouloudia Oujda25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
1.42
Mouloudia Oujda
0.93

Kawkab Marrakech creates 53% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.41
Mouloudia Oujda
0.90

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
0.95
Mouloudia Oujda
1.43

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

Mouloudia Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
75%
Kawkab Marrakech or Mouloudia Oujda
73%
Draw or Mouloudia Oujda
52%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
24%
Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
76%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
41%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
17%
Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
61%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
24%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
66%
Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

Mouloudia Oujda away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.41 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mouloudia Oujda attack 0.90 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
48%
level
27%
Mouloudia Oujda scores more
25%

Kawkab Marrakech at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
S. Essallami
14'
I. Khannouss
28'
A. Al-Saghiri
86'
M. Bosnan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Kawkab Marrakech 3–1 Mouloudia Oujda

Kawkab Marrakech beat Mouloudia Oujda 3-1 in Botola 2 on January 12, 2025.

Goals: S. Essallami (6'), I. Khannouss (14'), A. Al-Saghiri (28'), M. Bosnan (86').

The match was played at Stade Municipal Ben Guerir in Ben Guerir.