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Mouloudia Oujda vs KAC Kenitra — Botola 2 2025

Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
1/25/2026Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 12Honneur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda42%
×Draw30%
KAC Kenitra29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mouloudia Oujda
1.18
KAC Kenitra
0.92

Mouloudia Oujda creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 73 away

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.10
KAC Kenitra
0.93

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda
0.90
KAC Kenitra
1.26

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par
KAC Kenitra+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

KAC Kenitra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw
71%
Mouloudia Oujda or KAC Kenitra
70%
Draw or KAC Kenitra
58%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
18%
KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
69%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
33%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
12%
KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
60%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
23%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
59%
KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

KAC Kenitra away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.10 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

KAC Kenitra attack 0.93 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more
42%
level
30%
KAC Kenitra scores more
29%

Mouloudia Oujda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mouloudia Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Mouloudia Oujda 1–1 KAC Kenitra

Mouloudia Oujda and KAC Kenitra drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on January 25, 2026.

The match was played at Honneur Stadium in Oujda.