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KAC Kenitra vs Mouloudia Oujda — Botola 2 2025

KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
12/21/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 10Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

KAC Kenitra46%
×Draw28%
Mouloudia Oujda27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAC Kenitra
1.34
Mouloudia Oujda
0.95

KAC Kenitra creates 41% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 30 away

creates per match

KAC Kenitra
1.26
Mouloudia Oujda
0.90

allows per match

KAC Kenitra
1.00
Mouloudia Oujda
1.43

finishing

KAC Kenitra+0.00on par
Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Kenitra ↓

Mouloudia Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

KAC Kenitra or draw
73%
KAC Kenitra or Mouloudia Oujda
72%
Draw or Mouloudia Oujda
54%

Winning margin

KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
21%
Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
74%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
39%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
15%
Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
61%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
25%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
63%
Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Kenitra at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Mouloudia Oujda away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Kenitra attack 1.26 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Mouloudia Oujda attack 0.90 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

KAC Kenitra scores more
46%
level
28%
Mouloudia Oujda scores more
27%

KAC Kenitra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "KAC Kenitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: KAC Kenitra 0–0 Mouloudia Oujda

KAC Kenitra and Mouloudia Oujda drew 0-0 in Botola 2 on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.