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Mouloudia Oujda vs FUS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FUS Rabat
FUS Rabat
1/3/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 14Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda35%
×Draw29%
FUS Rabat37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mouloudia Oujda
1.09
FUS Rabat
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 120 away

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.17
FUS Rabat
1.09

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.17
FUS Rabat
1.02

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par
FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

FUS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw
63%
Mouloudia Oujda or FUS Rabat
71%
Draw or FUS Rabat
65%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
14%
FUS Rabat wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
66%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
30%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
10%
FUS Rabat 1+ goals
68%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
31%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
49%
FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 90 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.17 + FUS Rabat defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.09

FUS Rabat attack 1.09 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more
35%
level
29%
FUS Rabat scores more
37%

FUS Rabat at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mouloudia Oujda vs FUS Rabat

Mouloudia Oujda beat FUS Rabat 2-1 in Botola Pro on January 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda in Oujda.