FUS Rabat 0–0 Mouloudia Oujda: Result & Stats

FUS Rabat

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mouloudia Oujda

6/1/2024

Botola Pro · Round 29Stade Prince Moulay El Hassan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

FUS Rabat45%

×Draw29%

Mouloudia Oujda27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FUS RabatExpected goals in this matchMouloudia Oujda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.91

FUS Rabat

1.27

Mouloudia Oujda

0.91

FUS Rabat creates 40% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 90 away

1.25

creates per match

0.93

0.88

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

FUS Rabat

1.25

Mouloudia Oujda

0.93

allows per match

FUS Rabat

0.88

Mouloudia Oujda

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FUS Rabat ↓

Mouloudia Oujda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

FUS Rabat or draw

73%

FUS Rabat or Mouloudia Oujda

71%

Draw or Mouloudia Oujda

55%

Winning margin

FUS Rabat wins by 2+

20%

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FUS Rabat 1+ goals

72%

FUS Rabat 2+ goals

36%

FUS Rabat 3+ goals

14%

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals

60%

Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals

23%

Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FUS Rabat (draw refunded)

63%

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FUS Rabat at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 120 matches

Mouloudia Oujda away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.28 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FUS Rabat attack 1.25 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mouloudia Oujda attack 0.93 + FUS Rabat defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FUS Rabat scores more

45%

level

29%

Mouloudia Oujda scores more

27%

FUS Rabat at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff