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Mouloudia Oujda vs Chabab RIF Hoceima — Botola Pro 2025

Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
FT
1 – 0
Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
12/10/2018Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 11Stade Municipal (Oujda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda54%
×Draw26%
Chabab RIF Hoceima21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mouloudia Oujda
1.55
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.85

Mouloudia Oujda creates 82% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.17
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.53

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.17
Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.93

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par
Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw
79%
Mouloudia Oujda or Chabab RIF Hoceima
74%
Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima
46%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
28%
Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
79%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
46%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
20%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
57%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
21%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
72%
Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 90 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.17 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.55

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.53 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more
54%
level
26%
Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
21%

Mouloudia Oujda at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mouloudia Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mouloudia Oujda vs Chabab RIF Hoceima

Mouloudia Oujda beat Chabab RIF Hoceima 1-0 in Botola Pro on December 10, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Municipal (Oujda).