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Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Mouloudia Oujda — Botola Pro 2025

Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
FT
1 – 1
Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
4/27/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 26Stade Mimoun Al Arsi (Al Hoceima)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima38%
×Draw27%
Mouloudia Oujda35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.27
Mouloudia Oujda
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 90 away

creates per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.27
Mouloudia Oujda
0.93

allows per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.47
Mouloudia Oujda
1.28

finishing

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par
Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab RIF Hoceima ↓

Mouloudia Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chabab RIF Hoceima or draw
65%
Chabab RIF Hoceima or Mouloudia Oujda
73%
Draw or Mouloudia Oujda
62%

Winning margin

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
17%
Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
72%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
36%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
14%
Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
70%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
34%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
52%
Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab RIF Hoceima at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Mouloudia Oujda away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.28 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 1.27 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mouloudia Oujda attack 0.93 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
38%
level
27%
Mouloudia Oujda scores more
35%

Chabab RIF Hoceima at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chabab RIF Hoceima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Mouloudia Oujda

Chabab RIF Hoceima and Mouloudia Oujda drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Mimoun Al Arsi (Al Hoceima).