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Motril vs Mancha Real — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Motril
Motril
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mancha Real
Mancha Real
3/8/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 25Estadio Escribano Castilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Motril51%
×Draw27%
Mancha Real22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motril
1.46
Mancha Real
0.87

Motril creates 68% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 79 away

creates per match

Motril
1.76
Mancha Real
0.73

allows per match

Motril
1.01
Mancha Real
1.16

finishing

Motril+0.00on par
Mancha Real+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motril ↓

Mancha Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Motril or draw
78%
Motril or Mancha Real
73%
Draw or Mancha Real
49%

Winning margin

Motril wins by 2+
26%
Mancha Real wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Motril 1+ goals
77%
Motril 2+ goals
43%
Motril 3+ goals
18%
Mancha Real 1+ goals
58%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
22%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Motril (draw refunded)
69%
Mancha Real (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motril at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.01 · 112 matches

Mancha Real away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motril attack 1.76 + Mancha Real defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.46

Mancha Real attack 0.73 + Motril defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Motril scores more
51%
level
27%
Mancha Real scores more
22%

Motril at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Motril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Motril vs Mancha Real

Motril beat Mancha Real 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Escribano Castilla in Motril.