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Mancha Real vs Motril — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Mancha Real
Mancha Real
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Motril
Motril
3/23/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 26Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Mancha Real41%
×Draw28%
Motril31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mancha Real
1.27
Motril
1.06

Mancha Real creates 20% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 112 away

creates per match

Mancha Real
1.50
Motril
1.18

allows per match

Mancha Real
0.95
Motril
1.05

finishing

Mancha Real+0.00on par
Motril+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mancha Real ↓

Motril →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mancha Real or draw
69%
Mancha Real or Motril
72%
Draw or Motril
59%

Winning margin

Mancha Real wins by 2+
18%
Motril wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mancha Real 1+ goals
72%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
36%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
14%
Motril 1+ goals
65%
Motril 2+ goals
29%
Motril 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mancha Real (draw refunded)
57%
Motril (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mancha Real at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Motril away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.05 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mancha Real attack 1.50 + Motril defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Motril attack 1.18 + Mancha Real defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mancha Real scores more
41%
level
28%
Motril scores more
31%

Mancha Real at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mancha Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Mancha Real 4–2 Motril

Mancha Real beat Motril 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud in Mancha Real.