Motril 1–2 Linares Deportivo: Result & Stats

Motril

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Linares Deportivo

Juanfran 36'

Dani Espejo 52'

Isra 23'

9/15/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 4Estadio Escribano Castilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Motril31%

×Draw25%

Linares Deportivo44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MotrilExpected goals in this matchLinares Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.54

Motril

1.27

Linares Deportivo

1.54

Linares Deportivo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 14 away

1.76

creates per match

2.07

1.01

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Motril

1.76

Linares Deportivo

2.07

allows per match

Motril

1.01

Linares Deportivo

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Motril+0.00on par

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motril ↓

Linares Deportivo →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Motril or draw

56%

Motril or Linares Deportivo

75%

Draw or Linares Deportivo

69%

Winning margin

Motril wins by 2+

13%

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Motril 1+ goals

72%

Motril 2+ goals

36%

Motril 3+ goals

14%

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

79%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

45%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Motril (draw refunded)

42%

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Motril at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.01 · 112 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Motril attack 1.76 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.27

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Motril defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Motril scores more

31%

level

25%

Linares Deportivo scores more

44%

Linares Deportivo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Isra

36'

Juanfran

52'

Dani Espejo

57'

Pablo González← Fran Lara

63'

Carmelo← Javi Gadea

63'

Pedro Corral← Juanan

64'

Sergio← Iván Aguilar

73'

Darío← Puga

80'

Cervera← A. Araiza

Motril

Linares

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: José Manuel García

63'▲Carmelo←▼Javi Gadea

63'▲Pedro Corral←▼Juanan

73'▲Darío←▼Puga

Motril substitutes

CarmeloCorralDarío

Manager: Juan Arsenal

57'▲Pablo González←▼Fran Lara

64'▲Sergio←▼Iván Aguilar

80'▲Cervera←▼A. Araiza

Linares Deportivo substitutes

GonzálezSergioCervera

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Motril 1–2 Linares Deportivo

Linares Deportivo beat Motril 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 15, 2019.

Goals: Isra (23'), Juanfran (36'), Dani Espejo (52').

The match was played at Estadio Escribano Castilla in Motril.

Motril vs Linares Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Motril 1–2 Linares Deportivo