Linares Deportivo 1–0 Motril: Result & Stats

Linares Deportivo

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Motril

Fran Lara 60'

2/2/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 23Estadio Municipal de Linarejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Linares Deportivo56%

×Draw25%

Motril18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Linares DeportivoExpected goals in this matchMotril

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.76

Linares Deportivo

1.56

Motril

0.76

Linares Deportivo creates 105% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 112 away

2.07

creates per match

1.18

0.33

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Linares Deportivo

2.07

Motril

1.18

allows per match

Linares Deportivo

0.33

Motril

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Motril+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Deportivo ↓

Motril →

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Linares Deportivo or draw

82%

Linares Deportivo or Motril

75%

Draw or Motril

44%

Winning margin

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

30%

Motril wins by 2+

Team goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

79%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

46%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

21%

Motril 1+ goals

53%

Motril 2+ goals

18%

Motril 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

76%

Motril (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Linares Deportivo at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

Motril away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.05 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Motril defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.56

Motril attack 1.18 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Linares Deportivo scores more

56%

level

25%

Motril scores more

18%

Linares Deportivo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

Fran Lara

62'

Pablo González← Fran Carnicer

69'

Moi← Juanfran

69'

David Moreno← Linares

70'

Dani Espejo← Joan Grasa

79'

Iván Aguilar← Cervera

86'

Alonso García← Juanan

Linares

Motril

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Juan Arsenal

62'▲Pablo González←▼Fran Carnicer

70'▲Dani Espejo←▼Joan Grasa

79'▲Iván Aguilar←▼Cervera

Linares Deportivo substitutes

GonzálezEspejoAguilar

Manager: José Manuel García

69'▲Moi←▼Juanfran

69'▲David Moreno←▼Linares

86'▲Alonso García←▼Juanan

Motril substitutes

MoiMorenoGarcía

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Linares Deportivo 1–0 Motril

Linares Deportivo beat Motril 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 2, 2020.

Goals: Fran Lara (60').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Linarejos in Linares.

Linares Deportivo vs Motril — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Linares Deportivo 1–0 Motril