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Motril vs Juventud Torremolinos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Motril
Motril
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
2/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 13Estadio Escribano Castilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Motril37%
×Draw27%
Juventud Torremolinos36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motril
1.29
Juventud Torremolinos
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 45 away

creates per match

Motril
1.76
Juventud Torremolinos
1.53

allows per match

Motril
1.01
Juventud Torremolinos
0.82

finishing

Motril+0.00on par
Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motril ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Motril or draw
64%
Motril or Juventud Torremolinos
73%
Draw or Juventud Torremolinos
63%

Winning margin

Motril wins by 2+
16%
Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Motril 1+ goals
72%
Motril 2+ goals
37%
Motril 3+ goals
14%
Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
72%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
36%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Motril (draw refunded)
51%
Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motril at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.01 · 112 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motril attack 1.76 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.29

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.53 + Motril defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Motril scores more
37%
level
27%
Juventud Torremolinos scores more
36%

Motril at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Motril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Motril 2–4 Juventud Torremolinos

Juventud Torremolinos beat Motril 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Escribano Castilla in Motril.