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Juventud Torremolinos vs Motril — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Motril
Motril
1/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 14Campo Municipal El Pozuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Juventud Torremolinos46%
×Draw28%
Motril26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Torremolinos
1.34
Motril
0.93

Juventud Torremolinos creates 44% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 112 away

creates per match

Juventud Torremolinos
1.64
Motril
1.18

allows per match

Juventud Torremolinos
0.67
Motril
1.05

finishing

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par
Motril+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Torremolinos ↓

Motril →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Juventud Torremolinos or draw
74%
Juventud Torremolinos or Motril
72%
Draw or Motril
54%

Winning margin

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
22%
Motril wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
74%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
39%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
15%
Motril 1+ goals
61%
Motril 2+ goals
24%
Motril 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
64%
Motril (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Torremolinos at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Motril away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.05 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.64 + Motril defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.34

Motril attack 1.18 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Juventud Torremolinos scores more
46%
level
28%
Motril scores more
26%

Juventud Torremolinos at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Juventud Torremolinos 1–0 Motril

Juventud Torremolinos beat Motril 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Pozuelo in Torremolinos.