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Motril vs Huracán Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Motril
Motril
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Huracán Melilla
Huracán Melilla
12/10/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 14Campo de Fútbol Muncipal Chauchina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Motril86%
×Draw9%
Huracán Melilla4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motril
3.21
Huracán Melilla
0.60

Motril creates 435% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 15 away

creates per match

Motril
1.76
Huracán Melilla
0.20

allows per match

Motril
1.01
Huracán Melilla
4.67

finishing

Motril+0.00on par
Huracán Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motril ↓

Huracán Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Motril or draw
96%
Motril or Huracán Melilla
91%
Draw or Huracán Melilla
14%

Winning margin

Motril wins by 2+
69%
Huracán Melilla wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Motril 1+ goals
96%
Motril 2+ goals
82%
Motril 3+ goals
60%
Huracán Melilla 1+ goals
45%
Huracán Melilla 2+ goals
12%
Huracán Melilla 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Motril (draw refunded)
95%
Huracán Melilla (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motril at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.01 · 112 matches

Huracán Melilla away — creates 0.20, concedes 4.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motril attack 1.76 + Huracán Melilla defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.21

Huracán Melilla attack 0.20 + Motril defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Motril scores more
86%
level
9%
Huracán Melilla scores more
4%

Motril at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Motril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Motril vs Huracán Melilla

Huracán Melilla beat Motril 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 10, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Muncipal Chauchina in Chauchina.