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Huracán Melilla vs Motril — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huracán Melilla
Huracán Melilla
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Motril
Motril
4/15/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 29Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Huracán Melilla10%
×Draw18%
Motril72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracán Melilla
0.69
Motril
2.23

Motril creates 223% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 112 away

creates per match

Huracán Melilla
0.33
Motril
1.18

allows per match

Huracán Melilla
3.27
Motril
1.05

finishing

Huracán Melilla+0.00on par
Motril+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracán Melilla ↓

Motril →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–214%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Huracán Melilla or draw
28%
Huracán Melilla or Motril
82%
Draw or Motril
90%

Winning margin

Huracán Melilla wins by 2+
3%
Motril wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Huracán Melilla 1+ goals
50%
Huracán Melilla 2+ goals
15%
Huracán Melilla 3+ goals
3%
Motril 1+ goals
89%
Motril 2+ goals
65%
Motril 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Huracán Melilla (draw refunded)
12%
Motril (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracán Melilla at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.27 · 15 matches

Motril away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.05 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracán Melilla attack 0.33 + Motril defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.69

Motril attack 1.18 + Huracán Melilla defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Huracán Melilla scores more
10%
level
18%
Motril scores more
72%

Motril at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Motril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huracán Melilla vs Motril

Motril beat Huracán Melilla 5-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.