Motril 1–1 Huétor Tájar: Result & Stats

Motril

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Huétor Tájar

9/8/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 1Estadio Escribano Castilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Motril50%

×Draw25%

Huétor Tájar25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MotrilExpected goals in this matchHuétor Tájar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.06

Motril

1.60

Huétor Tájar

1.06

Motril creates 51% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 109 away

1.76

creates per match

1.11

1.01

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Motril

1.76

Huétor Tájar

1.11

allows per match

Motril

1.01

Huétor Tájar

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Motril+0.00on par

Huétor Tájar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motril ↓

Huétor Tájar →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Motril or draw

75%

Motril or Huétor Tájar

75%

Draw or Huétor Tájar

50%

Winning margin

Motril wins by 2+

26%

Huétor Tájar wins by 2+

Team goals

Motril 1+ goals

80%

Motril 2+ goals

47%

Motril 3+ goals

22%

Huétor Tájar 1+ goals

65%

Huétor Tájar 2+ goals

29%

Huétor Tájar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Motril (draw refunded)

66%

Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Motril at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.01 · 112 matches

Huétor Tájar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Motril attack 1.76 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.60

Huétor Tájar attack 1.11 + Motril defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Motril scores more

50%

level

25%

Huétor Tájar scores more

25%

Motril at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Motril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff