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Huétor Tájar vs Motril — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huétor Tájar
Huétor Tájar
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Motril
Motril
1/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 19Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Huétor Tájar40%
×Draw28%
Motril32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huétor Tájar
1.27
Motril
1.09

Huétor Tájar creates 17% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 112 away

creates per match

Huétor Tájar
1.49
Motril
1.18

allows per match

Huétor Tájar
1.01
Motril
1.05

finishing

Huétor Tájar+0.00on par
Motril+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Tájar ↓

Motril →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Huétor Tájar or draw
68%
Huétor Tájar or Motril
72%
Draw or Motril
60%

Winning margin

Huétor Tájar wins by 2+
18%
Motril wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Huétor Tájar 1+ goals
72%
Huétor Tájar 2+ goals
36%
Huétor Tájar 3+ goals
14%
Motril 1+ goals
66%
Motril 2+ goals
30%
Motril 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)
56%
Motril (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huétor Tájar at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 110 matches

Motril away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.05 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Tájar attack 1.49 + Motril defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Motril attack 1.18 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Huétor Tájar scores more
40%
level
28%
Motril scores more
32%

Huétor Tájar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Huétor Tájar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huétor Tájar vs Motril

Motril beat Huétor Tájar 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto in Huétor Tájar.