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Motorlet Praha vs Karlovy Vary — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Motorlet Praha
Motorlet Praha
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Karlovy Vary
Karlovy Vary
8/12/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 2Stadion SK Motorlet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Motorlet Praha48%
×Draw24%
Karlovy Vary28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motorlet Praha
1.68
Karlovy Vary
1.23

Motorlet Praha creates 37% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 52 away

creates per match

Motorlet Praha
1.54
Karlovy Vary
1.06

allows per match

Motorlet Praha
1.39
Karlovy Vary
1.81

finishing

Motorlet Praha+0.00on par
Karlovy Vary+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motorlet Praha ↓

Karlovy Vary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Motorlet Praha or draw
72%
Motorlet Praha or Karlovy Vary
76%
Draw or Karlovy Vary
52%

Winning margin

Motorlet Praha wins by 2+
25%
Karlovy Vary wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Motorlet Praha 1+ goals
81%
Motorlet Praha 2+ goals
50%
Motorlet Praha 3+ goals
24%
Karlovy Vary 1+ goals
71%
Karlovy Vary 2+ goals
35%
Karlovy Vary 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Motorlet Praha (draw refunded)
63%
Karlovy Vary (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motorlet Praha at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 82 matches

Karlovy Vary away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.81 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motorlet Praha attack 1.54 + Karlovy Vary defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.68

Karlovy Vary attack 1.06 + Motorlet Praha defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Motorlet Praha scores more
48%
level
24%
Karlovy Vary scores more
28%

Motorlet Praha at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Motorlet Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Motorlet Praha vs Karlovy Vary

Motorlet Praha beat Karlovy Vary 4-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SK Motorlet in Praha.