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Karlovy Vary vs Motorlet Praha — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Karlovy Vary
Karlovy Vary
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Motorlet Praha
Motorlet Praha
3/20/20223. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 17Drahovice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Karlovy Vary41%
×Draw24%
Motorlet Praha35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlovy Vary
1.59
Motorlet Praha
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 84 away

creates per match

Karlovy Vary
1.65
Motorlet Praha
1.30

allows per match

Karlovy Vary
1.63
Motorlet Praha
1.54

finishing

Karlovy Vary+0.00on par
Motorlet Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlovy Vary ↓

Motorlet Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Karlovy Vary or draw
65%
Karlovy Vary or Motorlet Praha
76%
Draw or Motorlet Praha
59%

Winning margin

Karlovy Vary wins by 2+
20%
Motorlet Praha wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Karlovy Vary 1+ goals
80%
Karlovy Vary 2+ goals
47%
Karlovy Vary 3+ goals
21%
Motorlet Praha 1+ goals
77%
Motorlet Praha 2+ goals
43%
Motorlet Praha 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Karlovy Vary (draw refunded)
54%
Motorlet Praha (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlovy Vary at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.63 · 54 matches

Motorlet Praha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.54 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlovy Vary attack 1.65 + Motorlet Praha defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.59

Motorlet Praha attack 1.30 + Karlovy Vary defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Karlovy Vary scores more
41%
level
24%
Motorlet Praha scores more
35%

Karlovy Vary at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Karlovy Vary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Karlovy Vary 1–0 Motorlet Praha

Karlovy Vary beat Motorlet Praha 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Drahovice UMT in Karlovy Vary.