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Motorlet Praha vs Dukla Praha II — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Motorlet Praha
Motorlet Praha
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dukla Praha II
Dukla Praha II
2/28/20263. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 32Stadion FK Motorlet Praha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Motorlet Praha40%
×Draw24%
Dukla Praha II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motorlet Praha
1.61
Dukla Praha II
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 61 away

creates per match

Motorlet Praha
1.54
Dukla Praha II
1.69

allows per match

Motorlet Praha
1.39
Dukla Praha II
1.69

finishing

Motorlet Praha+0.00on par
Dukla Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motorlet Praha ↓

Dukla Praha II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Motorlet Praha or draw
63%
Motorlet Praha or Dukla Praha II
76%
Draw or Dukla Praha II
60%

Winning margin

Motorlet Praha wins by 2+
20%
Dukla Praha II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Motorlet Praha 1+ goals
80%
Motorlet Praha 2+ goals
48%
Motorlet Praha 3+ goals
22%
Dukla Praha II 1+ goals
79%
Dukla Praha II 2+ goals
45%
Dukla Praha II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Motorlet Praha (draw refunded)
52%
Dukla Praha II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motorlet Praha at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 82 matches

Dukla Praha II away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.69 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motorlet Praha attack 1.54 + Dukla Praha II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.61

Dukla Praha II attack 1.69 + Motorlet Praha defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Motorlet Praha scores more
40%
level
24%
Dukla Praha II scores more
37%

Motorlet Praha at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Motorlet Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Motorlet Praha 0–1 Dukla Praha II

Dukla Praha II beat Motorlet Praha 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion FK Motorlet Praha in Prague.