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Dukla Praha II vs Motorlet Praha — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Dukla Praha II
Dukla Praha II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Motorlet Praha
Motorlet Praha
3/23/20253. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 20Sportareal Satalice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Dukla Praha II41%
×Draw24%
Motorlet Praha35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Praha II
1.58
Motorlet Praha
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 84 away

creates per match

Dukla Praha II
1.62
Motorlet Praha
1.30

allows per match

Dukla Praha II
1.59
Motorlet Praha
1.54

finishing

Dukla Praha II+0.00on par
Motorlet Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha II ↓

Motorlet Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dukla Praha II or draw
65%
Dukla Praha II or Motorlet Praha
76%
Draw or Motorlet Praha
59%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha II wins by 2+
20%
Motorlet Praha wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dukla Praha II 1+ goals
79%
Dukla Praha II 2+ goals
47%
Dukla Praha II 3+ goals
21%
Motorlet Praha 1+ goals
77%
Motorlet Praha 2+ goals
42%
Motorlet Praha 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha II (draw refunded)
54%
Motorlet Praha (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.59 · 61 matches

Motorlet Praha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.54 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha II attack 1.62 + Motorlet Praha defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Motorlet Praha attack 1.30 + Dukla Praha II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dukla Praha II scores more
41%
level
24%
Motorlet Praha scores more
35%

Dukla Praha II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dukla Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Dukla Praha II 5–0 Motorlet Praha

Dukla Praha II beat Motorlet Praha 5-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Sportareal Satalice UMT in Praha.