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Motorlet Praha vs České Budějovice II — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Motorlet Praha
Motorlet Praha
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
České Budějovice II
České Budějovice II
3/23/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 19Hřiště SK Motorlet UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Motorlet Praha44%
×Draw23%
České Budějovice II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motorlet Praha
1.81
České Budějovice II
1.57

Motorlet Praha creates 15% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 61 away

creates per match

Motorlet Praha
1.54
České Budějovice II
1.75

allows per match

Motorlet Praha
1.39
České Budějovice II
2.08

finishing

Motorlet Praha+0.00on par
České Budějovice II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motorlet Praha ↓

České Budějovice II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Motorlet Praha or draw
66%
Motorlet Praha or České Budějovice II
77%
Draw or České Budějovice II
56%

Winning margin

Motorlet Praha wins by 2+
23%
České Budějovice II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Motorlet Praha 1+ goals
84%
Motorlet Praha 2+ goals
54%
Motorlet Praha 3+ goals
27%
České Budějovice II 1+ goals
79%
České Budějovice II 2+ goals
46%
České Budějovice II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Motorlet Praha (draw refunded)
56%
České Budějovice II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motorlet Praha at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 82 matches

České Budějovice II away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.08 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motorlet Praha attack 1.54 + České Budějovice II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.81

České Budějovice II attack 1.75 + Motorlet Praha defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Motorlet Praha scores more
44%
level
23%
České Budějovice II scores more
34%

Motorlet Praha at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Motorlet Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Motorlet Praha vs České Budějovice II

Motorlet Praha and České Budějovice II drew 1-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Hřiště SK Motorlet UMT in Praha.