České Budějovice II 1–1 Motorlet Praha

České Budějovice II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Motorlet Praha

8/31/2025

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 4SCM Sloziste

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

České Budějovice II43%

×Draw24%

Motorlet Praha33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

České Budějovice IIExpected goals in this matchMotorlet Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.41

České Budějovice II

1.65

Motorlet Praha

1.41

České Budějovice II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 84 away

1.75

creates per match

1.30

1.52

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

České Budějovice II

1.75

Motorlet Praha

1.30

allows per match

České Budějovice II

1.52

Motorlet Praha

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

České Budějovice II+0.00on par

Motorlet Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice II ↓

Motorlet Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

České Budějovice II or draw

67%

České Budějovice II or Motorlet Praha

76%

Draw or Motorlet Praha

57%

Winning margin

České Budějovice II wins by 2+

22%

Motorlet Praha wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

České Budějovice II 1+ goals

81%

České Budějovice II 2+ goals

49%

České Budějovice II 3+ goals

23%

Motorlet Praha 1+ goals

76%

Motorlet Praha 2+ goals

41%

Motorlet Praha 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice II (draw refunded)

57%

Motorlet Praha (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.52 · 61 matches

Motorlet Praha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.54 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice II attack 1.75 + Motorlet Praha defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.65

Motorlet Praha attack 1.30 + České Budějovice II defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

České Budějovice II scores more

43%

level

24%

Motorlet Praha scores more

33%

České Budějovice II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "České Budějovice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff