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Motor Marienberg vs Einheit Wernigerode — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Motor Marienberg
Motor Marienberg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Einheit Wernigerode
Einheit Wernigerode
6/8/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 30Lautengrundstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Motor Marienberg36%
×Draw21%
Einheit Wernigerode42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motor Marienberg
1.84
Einheit Wernigerode
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 77 away

creates per match

Motor Marienberg
1.47
Einheit Wernigerode
1.39

allows per match

Motor Marienberg
2.60
Einheit Wernigerode
2.21

finishing

Motor Marienberg+0.00on par
Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motor Marienberg ↓

Einheit Wernigerode →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Motor Marienberg or draw
58%
Motor Marienberg or Einheit Wernigerode
79%
Draw or Einheit Wernigerode
64%

Winning margin

Motor Marienberg wins by 2+
19%
Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Motor Marienberg 1+ goals
84%
Motor Marienberg 2+ goals
55%
Motor Marienberg 3+ goals
28%
Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals
86%
Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals
59%
Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Motor Marienberg (draw refunded)
46%
Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motor Marienberg at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Einheit Wernigerode away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.21 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motor Marienberg attack 1.47 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.84

Einheit Wernigerode attack 1.39 + Motor Marienberg defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Motor Marienberg scores more
36%
level
21%
Einheit Wernigerode scores more
42%

Einheit Wernigerode at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Einheit Wernigerode will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Motor Marienberg vs Einheit Wernigerode

Motor Marienberg and Einheit Wernigerode drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Lautengrundstadion in Marienberg.