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Einheit Wernigerode vs Motor Marienberg — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Einheit Wernigerode
Einheit Wernigerode
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Motor Marienberg
Motor Marienberg
2/3/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 15Sportplatz Mannsbergstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Einheit Wernigerode68%
×Draw16%
Motor Marienberg15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Einheit Wernigerode
2.86
Motor Marienberg
1.32

Einheit Wernigerode creates 117% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

creates per match

Einheit Wernigerode
2.12
Motor Marienberg
0.73

allows per match

Einheit Wernigerode
1.92
Motor Marienberg
3.60

finishing

Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par
Motor Marienberg+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Einheit Wernigerode ↓

Motor Marienberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Einheit Wernigerode or draw
85%
Einheit Wernigerode or Motor Marienberg
84%
Draw or Motor Marienberg
32%

Winning margin

Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+
48%
Motor Marienberg wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals
94%
Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals
77%
Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals
53%
Motor Marienberg 1+ goals
73%
Motor Marienberg 2+ goals
38%
Motor Marienberg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)
82%
Motor Marienberg (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Einheit Wernigerode at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.92 · 77 matches

Motor Marienberg away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Einheit Wernigerode attack 2.12 + Motor Marienberg defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.86

Motor Marienberg attack 0.73 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Einheit Wernigerode scores more
68%
level
16%
Motor Marienberg scores more
15%

Einheit Wernigerode at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Einheit Wernigerode will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Einheit Wernigerode vs Motor Marienberg

Einheit Wernigerode beat Motor Marienberg 5-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Mannsbergstraße in Wernigerode.