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Motor Marienberg vs Einheit Rudolstadt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Motor Marienberg
Motor Marienberg
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Einheit Rudolstadt
Einheit Rudolstadt
9/2/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 5Lautengrundstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Motor Marienberg35%
×Draw21%
Einheit Rudolstadt43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motor Marienberg
1.80
Einheit Rudolstadt
2.00

Einheit Rudolstadt creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 82 away

creates per match

Motor Marienberg
1.47
Einheit Rudolstadt
1.40

allows per match

Motor Marienberg
2.60
Einheit Rudolstadt
2.13

finishing

Motor Marienberg+0.00on par
Einheit Rudolstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motor Marienberg ↓

Einheit Rudolstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Motor Marienberg or draw
57%
Motor Marienberg or Einheit Rudolstadt
79%
Draw or Einheit Rudolstadt
65%

Winning margin

Motor Marienberg wins by 2+
18%
Einheit Rudolstadt wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Motor Marienberg 1+ goals
83%
Motor Marienberg 2+ goals
54%
Motor Marienberg 3+ goals
27%
Einheit Rudolstadt 1+ goals
86%
Einheit Rudolstadt 2+ goals
59%
Einheit Rudolstadt 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Motor Marienberg (draw refunded)
45%
Einheit Rudolstadt (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motor Marienberg at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Einheit Rudolstadt away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motor Marienberg attack 1.47 + Einheit Rudolstadt defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.80

Einheit Rudolstadt attack 1.40 + Motor Marienberg defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Motor Marienberg scores more
35%
level
21%
Einheit Rudolstadt scores more
43%

Einheit Rudolstadt at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Einheit Rudolstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Motor Marienberg vs Einheit Rudolstadt

Motor Marienberg beat Einheit Rudolstadt 3-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Lautengrundstadion in Marienberg.