Einheit Rudolstadt 1–1 Motor Marienberg

Einheit Rudolstadt

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Motor Marienberg

3/9/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 20Stadtisches Stadion im Heinepark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Einheit Rudolstadt70%

×Draw17%

Motor Marienberg13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Einheit RudolstadtExpected goals in this matchMotor Marienberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.04

Einheit Rudolstadt

2.56

Motor Marienberg

1.04

Einheit Rudolstadt creates 146% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 15 away

1.51

creates per match

0.73

1.34

allows per match

3.60

creates per match

Einheit Rudolstadt

1.51

Motor Marienberg

0.73

allows per match

Einheit Rudolstadt

1.34

Motor Marienberg

3.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Einheit Rudolstadt+0.00on par

Motor Marienberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Einheit Rudolstadt ↓

Motor Marienberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Einheit Rudolstadt or draw

87%

Einheit Rudolstadt or Motor Marienberg

83%

Draw or Motor Marienberg

30%

Winning margin

Einheit Rudolstadt wins by 2+

48%

Motor Marienberg wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Einheit Rudolstadt 1+ goals

92%

Einheit Rudolstadt 2+ goals

72%

Einheit Rudolstadt 3+ goals

46%

Motor Marienberg 1+ goals

65%

Motor Marienberg 2+ goals

28%

Motor Marienberg 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Einheit Rudolstadt (draw refunded)

84%

Motor Marienberg (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Einheit Rudolstadt at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 83 matches

Motor Marienberg away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Einheit Rudolstadt attack 1.51 + Motor Marienberg defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.56

Motor Marienberg attack 0.73 + Einheit Rudolstadt defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Einheit Rudolstadt scores more

70%

level

17%

Motor Marienberg scores more

13%

Einheit Rudolstadt at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Einheit Rudolstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff