Motor Marienberg 0–4 Auerbach: Result & Stats

Motor Marienberg

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Auerbach

4/30/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 24Lautengrundstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Motor Marienberg24%

×Draw20%

Auerbach56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Motor MarienbergExpected goals in this matchAuerbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

2.20

Motor Marienberg

1.37

Auerbach

2.20

Auerbach creates 61% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 62 away

1.47

creates per match

1.79

2.60

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Motor Marienberg

1.47

Auerbach

1.79

allows per match

Motor Marienberg

2.60

Auerbach

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Motor Marienberg+0.00on par

Auerbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motor Marienberg ↓

Auerbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Motor Marienberg or draw

44%

Motor Marienberg or Auerbach

80%

Draw or Auerbach

76%

Winning margin

Motor Marienberg wins by 2+

10%

Auerbach wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Motor Marienberg 1+ goals

75%

Motor Marienberg 2+ goals

40%

Motor Marienberg 3+ goals

16%

Auerbach 1+ goals

89%

Auerbach 2+ goals

64%

Auerbach 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Motor Marienberg (draw refunded)

30%

Auerbach (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motor Marienberg at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Auerbach away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motor Marienberg attack 1.47 + Auerbach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.37

Auerbach attack 1.79 + Motor Marienberg defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Motor Marienberg scores more

24%

level

20%

Auerbach scores more

56%

Auerbach at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Auerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff