Auerbach 3–1 Motor Marienberg: Result & Stats

Auerbach

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Motor Marienberg

10/7/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 9Arena zur Vogtlandweide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Auerbach73%

×Draw15%

Motor Marienberg12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AuerbachExpected goals in this matchMotor Marienberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.73

1.00

Auerbach

2.73

Motor Marienberg

1.00

Auerbach creates 173% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 15 away

1.85

creates per match

0.73

1.27

allows per match

3.60

creates per match

Auerbach

1.85

Motor Marienberg

0.73

allows per match

Auerbach

1.27

Motor Marienberg

3.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Auerbach+0.00on par

Motor Marienberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auerbach ↓

Motor Marienberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Auerbach or draw

88%

Auerbach or Motor Marienberg

85%

Draw or Motor Marienberg

27%

Winning margin

Auerbach wins by 2+

52%

Motor Marienberg wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Auerbach 1+ goals

93%

Auerbach 2+ goals

75%

Auerbach 3+ goals

50%

Motor Marienberg 1+ goals

63%

Motor Marienberg 2+ goals

26%

Motor Marienberg 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Auerbach (draw refunded)

86%

Motor Marienberg (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auerbach at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Motor Marienberg away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auerbach attack 1.85 + Motor Marienberg defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.73

Motor Marienberg attack 0.73 + Auerbach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Auerbach scores more

73%

level

15%

Motor Marienberg scores more

12%

Auerbach at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Auerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff