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Motor Lublin vs Lechia Gdansk — I Liga 2018

Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
12/16/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 19Arena Lublin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Motor Lublin41%
×Draw24%
Lechia Gdansk35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motor Lublin
1.59
Lechia Gdansk
1.44

Motor Lublin creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Motor Lublin
1.65
Lechia Gdansk
1.35

allows per match

Motor Lublin
1.53
Lechia Gdansk
1.53

finishing

Motor Lublin+0.00on par
Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motor Lublin ↓

Lechia Gdansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Motor Lublin or draw
65%
Motor Lublin or Lechia Gdansk
76%
Draw or Lechia Gdansk
59%

Winning margin

Motor Lublin wins by 2+
21%
Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Motor Lublin 1+ goals
80%
Motor Lublin 2+ goals
47%
Motor Lublin 3+ goals
21%
Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
76%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
42%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Motor Lublin (draw refunded)
54%
Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motor Lublin at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motor Lublin attack 1.65 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.59

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.35 + Motor Lublin defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Motor Lublin scores more
41%
level
24%
Lechia Gdansk scores more
35%

Motor Lublin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Motor Lublin vs Lechia Gdansk

Motor Lublin beat Lechia Gdansk 1-0 in I Liga on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Lublin in Lublin.