Lechia Gdansk 0–2 Motor Lublin: Result & Stats

Lechia Gdansk

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Motor Lublin

7/26/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 2Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Lechia Gdansk48%

×Draw24%

Motor Lublin28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia GdanskExpected goals in this matchMotor Lublin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.24

Lechia Gdansk

1.71

Motor Lublin

1.24

Lechia Gdansk creates 38% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 34 away

1.48

creates per match

1.32

1.16

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.48

Motor Lublin

1.32

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.16

Motor Lublin

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Motor Lublin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Motor Lublin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw

72%

Lechia Gdansk or Motor Lublin

76%

Draw or Motor Lublin

52%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

26%

Motor Lublin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

82%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

51%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

24%

Motor Lublin 1+ goals

71%

Motor Lublin 2+ goals

35%

Motor Lublin 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

63%

Motor Lublin (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.16 · 120 matches

Motor Lublin away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.48 + Motor Lublin defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.71

Motor Lublin attack 1.32 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more

48%

level

24%

Motor Lublin scores more

28%

Lechia Gdansk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff