Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze — Ekstraklasa 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 23+ matches
Motor Lublin42%
Gornik Zabrze32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Motor Lublin creates 18% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 23 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Motor Lublin ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Motor Lublin at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches
Gornik Zabrze away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.44 · 23 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Motor Lublin attack 1.52 + Gornik Zabrze defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.48
Gornik Zabrze attack 0.88 + Motor Lublin defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.25
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Motor Lublin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Motor Lublin substitutes
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Lech Poznan
JagielloniaGornik Zabrze
Raków Częstochowa
GKS Katowice
Legia Warszawa
Zaglebie Lubin
Wisla Plock
Pogon Szczecin
Radomiak Radom
Korona Kielce
Lechia GdanskMotor Lublin
Widzew Łódź
Cracovia Krakow
Piast Gliwice
Arka Gdynia
NiecieczaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Motor Lublin host Gornik Zabrze on Friday, 13 September 2024 at 16:00. The match is part of the Ekstraklasa 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze
Motor Lublin beat Gornik Zabrze 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on September 13, 2024.
Goals: C. Simon (49').
Gornik Zabrze controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 14.
The match was played at Arena Lublin in Lublin.