Gornik Zabrze vs Motor Lublin — Ekstraklasa 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 22+ matches
Gornik Zabrze48%
Motor Lublin28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Gornik Zabrze creates 37% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 22 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Gornik Zabrze ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Gornik Zabrze at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.11 · 26 matches
Motor Lublin away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.80 · 22 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Gornik Zabrze attack 1.56 + Motor Lublin defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.68
Motor Lublin attack 1.34 + Gornik Zabrze defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Gornik Zabrze at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Gornik Zabrze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Lech Poznan
JagielloniaGornik Zabrze
Raków Częstochowa
GKS Katowice
Legia Warszawa
Zaglebie Lubin
Wisla Plock
Pogon Szczecin
Radomiak Radom
Korona Kielce
Lechia GdanskMotor Lublin
Widzew Łódź
Cracovia Krakow
Piast Gliwice
Arka Gdynia
NiecieczaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Gornik Zabrze host Motor Lublin on Saturday, 15 March 2025 at 16:30. The match is part of the Ekstraklasa 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Gornik Zabrze vs Motor Lublin
Gornik Zabrze beat Motor Lublin 4-0 in Ekstraklasa on March 15, 2025.
Goals: Ł. Podolski (25'), M. Kmeť (50'), P. Hellebrand (53'), O. Sow (64').
Motor Lublin controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 18.
The match was played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Zabrze.