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Motor Lublin vs Górnik Łęczna — I Liga 2018

Motor Lublin
Motor Lublinadvanced
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna
5/30/2024I LigaI Liga · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsArena Lublin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Motor Lublin41%
×Draw25%
Górnik Łęczna34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motor Lublin
1.49
Górnik Łęczna
1.33

Motor Lublin creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 86 away

creates per match

Motor Lublin
1.65
Górnik Łęczna
1.13

allows per match

Motor Lublin
1.53
Górnik Łęczna
1.33

finishing

Motor Lublin+0.00on par
Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motor Lublin ↓

Górnik Łęczna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Motor Lublin or draw
66%
Motor Lublin or Górnik Łęczna
75%
Draw or Górnik Łęczna
59%

Winning margin

Motor Lublin wins by 2+
20%
Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Motor Lublin 1+ goals
77%
Motor Lublin 2+ goals
44%
Motor Lublin 3+ goals
19%
Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals
74%
Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals
38%
Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Motor Lublin (draw refunded)
55%
Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motor Lublin at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Górnik Łęczna away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motor Lublin attack 1.65 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.49

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.13 + Motor Lublin defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Motor Lublin scores more
41%
level
25%
Górnik Łęczna scores more
34%

Motor Lublin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Motor Lublin vs Górnik Łęczna

Motor Lublin and Górnik Łęczna drew 0-0 in I Liga on May 30, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Lublin in Lublin.