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Górnik Łęczna vs Motor Lublin — I Liga 2018

Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
3/3/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 22Bogdanka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Górnik Łęczna35%
×Draw28%
Motor Lublin37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Łęczna
1.15
Motor Lublin
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 18 away

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna
1.35
Motor Lublin
1.28

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna
1.11
Motor Lublin
0.94

finishing

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par
Motor Lublin+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna ↓

Motor Lublin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna or draw
63%
Górnik Łęczna or Motor Lublin
72%
Draw or Motor Lublin
65%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+
14%
Motor Lublin wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals
68%
Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals
32%
Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals
11%
Motor Lublin 1+ goals
70%
Motor Lublin 2+ goals
34%
Motor Lublin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)
48%
Motor Lublin (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Motor Lublin away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.35 + Motor Lublin defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.15

Motor Lublin attack 1.28 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Górnik Łęczna scores more
35%
level
28%
Motor Lublin scores more
37%

Motor Lublin at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Górnik Łęczna 1–1 Motor Lublin

Górnik Łęczna and Motor Lublin drew 1-1 in I Liga on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Bogdanka Arena in Łęczna.