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Lisburn Distillery vs Dollingstown — Premier Intermediate League 2019

Lisburn Distillery
Lisburn Distillery
CANC
00:00
Dollingstown
Dollingstown
3/14/2020Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Round 18New Grosvenor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Lisburn Distillery29%
×Draw24%
Dollingstown47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lisburn Distillery
1.31
Dollingstown
1.72

Dollingstown creates 31% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

creates per match

Lisburn Distillery
1.00
Dollingstown
1.63

allows per match

Lisburn Distillery
1.81
Dollingstown
1.63

finishing

Lisburn Distillery+0.00on par
Dollingstown+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lisburn Distillery ↓

Dollingstown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lisburn Distillery or draw
53%
Lisburn Distillery or Dollingstown
76%
Draw or Dollingstown
71%

Winning margin

Lisburn Distillery wins by 2+
13%
Dollingstown wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Lisburn Distillery 1+ goals
73%
Lisburn Distillery 2+ goals
38%
Lisburn Distillery 3+ goals
14%
Dollingstown 1+ goals
82%
Dollingstown 2+ goals
51%
Dollingstown 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Lisburn Distillery (draw refunded)
38%
Dollingstown (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lisburn Distillery at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

Dollingstown away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lisburn Distillery attack 1.00 + Dollingstown defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dollingstown attack 1.63 + Lisburn Distillery defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lisburn Distillery scores more
29%
level
24%
Dollingstown scores more
47%

Dollingstown at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dollingstown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lisburn Distillery host Dollingstown

March 14, 2020: Lisburn Distillery take on Dollingstown in Premier Intermediate League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lisburn Distillery host Dollingstown at New Grosvenor Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.