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Dollingstown vs Lisburn Distillery — Premier Intermediate League 2018

Dollingstown
Dollingstown
FT
1 – 2
Lisburn Distillery
Lisburn Distillery
3/23/2019Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Round 18Planters Park (Lurgan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dollingstown45%
×Draw20%
Lisburn Distillery35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dollingstown
2.23
Lisburn Distillery
1.94

Dollingstown creates 15% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dollingstown
2.46
Lisburn Distillery
1.79

allows per match

Dollingstown
2.08
Lisburn Distillery
2.00

finishing

Dollingstown+0.00on par
Lisburn Distillery+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dollingstown ↓

Lisburn Distillery →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Dollingstown or draw
65%
Dollingstown or Lisburn Distillery
80%
Draw or Lisburn Distillery
55%

Winning margin

Dollingstown wins by 2+
26%
Lisburn Distillery wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dollingstown 1+ goals
89%
Dollingstown 2+ goals
65%
Dollingstown 3+ goals
38%
Lisburn Distillery 1+ goals
86%
Lisburn Distillery 2+ goals
58%
Lisburn Distillery 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Dollingstown (draw refunded)
57%
Lisburn Distillery (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dollingstown at home — creates 2.46, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Lisburn Distillery away — creates 1.79, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dollingstown attack 2.46 + Lisburn Distillery defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.23

Lisburn Distillery attack 1.79 + Dollingstown defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dollingstown scores more
45%
level
20%
Lisburn Distillery scores more
35%

Dollingstown at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dollingstown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dollingstown vs Lisburn Distillery

Lisburn Distillery beat Dollingstown 2-1 in Premier Intermediate League on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at Planters Park (Lurgan).