Motherwell 3–0 Livingston: Result & Stats

Motherwell

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Livingston

E. Longelo 88'

A. Stamatelopoulos 60' (pen)

E. Watt 18'

12/6/2025

Premiership · 1st Phase - 16Fir Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Motherwell54%

×Draw24%

Livingston22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MotherwellExpected goals in this matchLivingston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.98

Motherwell

1.71

Livingston

0.98

Motherwell creates 74% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.48

creates per match

1.05

0.91

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Motherwell

1.48

Livingston

1.05

allows per match

Motherwell

0.91

Livingston

1.95

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Motherwell-0.18scores less

Livingston-0.05on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motherwell ↓

Livingston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Motherwell or draw

78%

Motherwell or Livingston

76%

Draw or Livingston

46%

Winning margin

Motherwell wins by 2+

30%

Livingston wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Motherwell 1+ goals

82%

Motherwell 2+ goals

51%

Motherwell 3+ goals

24%

Livingston 1+ goals

62%

Livingston 2+ goals

26%

Livingston 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Motherwell (draw refunded)

72%

Livingston (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motherwell at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.91 · 10 matches

Livingston away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.95 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motherwell attack 1.48 + Livingston defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.71

Livingston attack 1.05 + Motherwell defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Motherwell scores more

54%

level

24%

Livingston scores more

22%

Motherwell at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Motherwell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

E. Watt

Motherwell · M

9.0

Match Events

18'

39'

40'

56'

60'

A. StamatelopoulosPenalty

61'

C. Hendry← A. Stamatelopoulos

61'

J. Bokila← S. May

62'

J. Brenet← C. Montano

70'

O. Priestman← E. Watt

70'

E. Longelo← J. Koutroumbis

70'

R. McGowan← S. Pittman

70'

R. Muirhead← L. Smith

70'

M. Sylla← M. Tait

71'

C. Slattery← E. Just

86'

Ryan McGowan

88'

E. Longelo↳ R. Charles-Cook

89'

I. Said← R. Charles-Cook

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MotherwellLivingston

Overview

58%Possession42%

14Total Shots12

2.74Expected Goals (xG)1.14

4Corners5

9Fouls19

Shots

14Total Shots12

7On Target1

5Off Target5

2Blocked6

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

545Total Passes392

474Accurate Passes311

87%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls19

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0