Livingston 1–2 Motherwell: Result & Stats

Livingston

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Motherwell

J. Bokila 26' (pen)

E. Just 90'

A. Stamatelopoulos 59' (pen)

10/25/2025

Premiership · 1st Phase - 9The Home of the Set Fare Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Livingston37%

×Draw27%

Motherwell37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LivingstonExpected goals in this matchMotherwell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

Livingston

1.29

Motherwell

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.01

creates per match

1.22

1.37

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Livingston

1.01

Motherwell

1.22

allows per match

Livingston

1.37

Motherwell

1.56

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Livingston-0.01on par

Motherwell+0.34scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livingston ↓

Motherwell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Livingston or draw

63%

Livingston or Motherwell

73%

Draw or Motherwell

63%

Winning margin

Livingston wins by 2+

16%

Motherwell wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Livingston 1+ goals

72%

Livingston 2+ goals

37%

Livingston 3+ goals

14%

Motherwell 1+ goals

72%

Motherwell 2+ goals

37%

Motherwell 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Livingston (draw refunded)

50%

Motherwell (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livingston at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.37 · 7 matches

Motherwell away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livingston attack 1.01 + Motherwell defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.29

Motherwell attack 1.22 + Livingston defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Livingston scores more

37%

level

27%

Motherwell scores more

37%

Livingston at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

E. Just

Motherwell · M

8.0

Match Events

26'

J. BokilaPenalty

47'

Liam Gordon

56'

Lukas FadingerPenalty confirmed

59'

L. Smith← R. Muirhead

59'

A. StamatelopoulosPenalty

60'

C. Slattery← T. Maswanhise

60'

67'

69'

69'

81'

C. Hendry← A. Stamatelopoulos

81'

R. Charles-Cook← I. Said

84'

Stephen O'Donnell

87'

Jérôme Prior

87'

J. Koutroumbis← E. Longelo

90+2'

Elijah JustGoal cancelled

90'

E. Just↳ C. Slattery

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LivingstonMotherwell

Overview

36%Possession64%

11Total Shots15

0Corners3

18Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots15

4On Target2

4Off Target4

3Blocked9

8Inside Box11

3Outside Box4

Passing

36%Possession64%

336Total Passes618

248Accurate Passes523

74%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

6Offsides2