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Motema Pembe vs Bukavu Dawa — Ligue 1 2019

Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
CANC
14:30
Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
3/4/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Motema Pembe57%
×Draw24%
Bukavu Dawa19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motema Pembe
1.69
Bukavu Dawa
0.84

Motema Pembe creates 101% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 27 away

creates per match

Motema Pembe
1.41
Bukavu Dawa
0.81

allows per match

Motema Pembe
0.88
Bukavu Dawa
1.96

finishing

Motema Pembe+0.00on par
Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motema Pembe ↓

Bukavu Dawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Motema Pembe or draw
81%
Motema Pembe or Bukavu Dawa
76%
Draw or Bukavu Dawa
43%

Winning margin

Motema Pembe wins by 2+
32%
Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Motema Pembe 1+ goals
82%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
50%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
24%
Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
57%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
21%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
76%
Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motema Pembe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.88 · 78 matches

Bukavu Dawa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motema Pembe attack 1.41 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.69

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.81 + Motema Pembe defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Motema Pembe scores more
57%
level
24%
Bukavu Dawa scores more
19%

Motema Pembe at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Motema Pembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Motema Pembe host Bukavu Dawa

March 4, 2025: Motema Pembe take on Bukavu Dawa in Ligue 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Motema Pembe host Bukavu Dawa at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.