Bukavu Dawa 0–1 Motema Pembe: Result & Stats

Bukavu Dawa

FT

0 – 1

Motema Pembe

10/27/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade de la Concorde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bukavu Dawa23%

×Draw31%

Motema Pembe46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bukavu DawaExpected goals in this matchMotema Pembe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

1.17

Bukavu Dawa

0.73

Motema Pembe

1.17

Motema Pembe creates 60% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 83 away

0.52

creates per match

1.14

1.21

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Bukavu Dawa

0.52

Motema Pembe

1.14

allows per match

Bukavu Dawa

1.21

Motema Pembe

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par

Motema Pembe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bukavu Dawa ↓

Motema Pembe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–118%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Bukavu Dawa or draw

54%

Bukavu Dawa or Motema Pembe

69%

Draw or Motema Pembe

77%

Winning margin

Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+

7%

Motema Pembe wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals

52%

Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals

17%

Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals

4%

Motema Pembe 1+ goals

69%

Motema Pembe 2+ goals

33%

Motema Pembe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)

33%

Motema Pembe (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bukavu Dawa at home — creates 0.52, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Motema Pembe away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.94 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.52 + Motema Pembe defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.73

Motema Pembe attack 1.14 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bukavu Dawa scores more

23%

level

31%

Motema Pembe scores more

46%

Motema Pembe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Motema Pembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff