Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Motema Pembe vs Anges Verts — Ligue 1 2019

Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
CANC
14:00
Anges Verts
Anges Verts
7/13/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 20Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Motema Pembe58%
×Draw25%
Anges Verts17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motema Pembe
1.62
Anges Verts
0.76

Motema Pembe creates 113% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 30 away

creates per match

Motema Pembe
1.41
Anges Verts
0.63

allows per match

Motema Pembe
0.88
Anges Verts
1.83

finishing

Motema Pembe+0.00on par
Anges Verts+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motema Pembe ↓

Anges Verts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Motema Pembe or draw
83%
Motema Pembe or Anges Verts
75%
Draw or Anges Verts
42%

Winning margin

Motema Pembe wins by 2+
31%
Anges Verts wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Motema Pembe 1+ goals
80%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
48%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
22%
Anges Verts 1+ goals
53%
Anges Verts 2+ goals
18%
Anges Verts 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
77%
Anges Verts (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motema Pembe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.88 · 78 matches

Anges Verts away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motema Pembe attack 1.41 + Anges Verts defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.62

Anges Verts attack 0.63 + Motema Pembe defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Motema Pembe scores more
58%
level
25%
Anges Verts scores more
17%

Motema Pembe at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Motema Pembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Motema Pembe face Anges Verts (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 returns with Motema Pembe hosting Anges Verts. Match starts July 13, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Motema Pembe host Anges Verts at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.